Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Q&A: Mexico's drug-related violence

Mexican President Felipe Calderon launched his crackdown on the drug cartels in December 2006.
Since then, many thousands of people have been killed.
What is the scale of the violence?
On 16 December, Mexican Attorney General Arturo Chavez said that the number of people killed over the past four years in drug-related violence stood at 30,196. Last year was the bloodiest year so far, with 12,456 drug-related murders, some 5,000 more than in 2009. Government officials have repeatedly said that the figures need to be seen in context; they say the vast majority of the killings involve people connected with the drugs trade.
Where are the worst-hit areas?
Violence had tended to be concentrated in Mexico's northern border regions, especially Chihuahua, as well as Pacific states like Sinaloa, Michoacan and Guerrero. Ciudad Juarez (just across from El Paso in Texas) is the city suffering the most. In 2010, some 3,100 people were killed in Juarez, which has a population of more than a million.
2010 saw violence spread to other regions, including Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas states. However, Mexico is a large country, and there are still many areas where the serious crime rate is unexceptional. The overall murder rate is lower than several other countries in the region, including El Salvador and Honduras: 11.6 murders per 100,000 inhabitants, against 51.8 and 60.9 respectively.
What explains the jump in killings and spread of violence in 2010?
Analysts point to rifts between formerly allied cartels. The split between the Gulf Cartel and its former armed enforcers, Los Zetas, erupted into bitter fighting in eastern parts of Mexico that had been relatively free of violence. Much of the violence in Ciudad and Juarez and the rest of Chihuahua is attributed to a turf war between the Sinaloa and Juarez cartels.
Is President Calderon's strategy of deploying troops working or, four years on, just leading to more violence?
More than 50,000 troops and federal police are actively involved in the fight against the cartels. The Mexican government says record amounts of drugs have been seized, and senior cartel leaders jailed or killed in operations. But another consequence has been an explosion of violence, as the drug cartels fight both the army and each other. There are also concerns about the military's lack of accountability.
Why is much of the violence so horrific?
There have been numerous discoveries of mass graves - some containing dozens of bodies. Other gruesome attacks include beheadings and bodies hung from bridges. The Mexican government argues that the violence shows that the gangs are turning on one another - reflecting the success of government policies. However, some observers argue that the cartels have become so powerful that, in effect, they control some parts of the country - the violence is evidence of their gang law.
How serious is corruption within the police?
Very. One reason why the government has deployed the army so extensively is that it feels the police cannot be trusted. Drug cartels with massive resources at their disposal have repeatedly managed to infiltrate the underpaid police, from the grassroots level to the very top. Efforts are under way to rebuild the entire structure of the Mexican police force, but the process is expected to take years.
How much support is there for the government's policy?
Opinion polls suggest that public backing is declining as the violence continues unabated and calls for a rethink have grown. Mr Calderon, while stressing he is against legalising drugs, has said he would be open to a debate on the issue.
Who are Mexico's powerful cartels?
The cartels control the trafficking of drugs from South America to the US, a business that is worth an estimated $13bn (£9bn) a year. Their power grew as the US stepped up anti-narcotics operations in the Caribbean and Florida. A US state department report estimated that as much as 90% of all cocaine consumed in the US comes via Mexico.
There are roughly seven main gangs. Alliances between them have been seen to shift as they vie for control of trafficking routes.
To what extent is violence spilling over the US-Mexico border?
Most of the violence remains firmly on the Mexican side of the border, but there is some evidence of increasingly violent attacks on US border patrol agents by drug traffickers. There has also been a reported rise in drug-related shootings and kidnappings in some US cities and towns, especially in the south-west.
A US Congress report in 2008 drew on evidence from intelligence sources suggesting that Mexican cartels had forged closer links with established drug gangs inside the US.
A May 2010 report from the US National Drug Intelligence Center said that Mexican drug trafficking organisations "continue to represent the single greatest drug trafficking threat to the United States".
What has been the US response to the drug trafficking and violence?
In March 2009, the US government announced that it would step up efforts to disrupt the illegal flow of weapons and drug profits from the US to Mexico - a key demand of the Mexican government.
The US, Mexico, Central American nations, Haiti and the Dominican Republic form the Merida Initiative - a $400m scheme to assist Mexico's efforts to take on the drugs trade, by helping to provide equipment and training to support law enforcement operations.
In November 2010, a US justice department report said that US efforts to tackle gun-smuggling lacked focus, with not enough intelligence-sharing between US agencies and with their Mexican partners.
Map showing areas of influence of Mexican drug cartels

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